Harvesting Hope: Weather Shocks and Religious Expenditure in Sub-Saharan Africa

With Eva Raiber

We examine how weather shocks affect religious contributions in Nigeria using household panel data from the Nigeria General Household Survey (2010–2019), monthly SPEI, and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS). Severe drought and pluvial shocks have opposite effects on religious giving. Among households for whom these shocks are unusual, at least two severe drought months raise the probability of giving by 9.3 to 10.1 percentage points, about one quarter of the mean, while a severe pluvial month lowers it by 5.0 to 6.9 percentage points. The drought response is larger among Christian and urban households. The findings suggest wide nonlinearity in household response, which depends on the type of weather anomaly and exposure window, in addition to possible institutional differences in mobilization.